Keywords
Rural population aging
Spatial error model
Human capital level
Submitted : 2025-03-04
Accepted : 2025-03-19
Published : 2025-04-03
Abstract
Promoting the green development of agriculture is an essential path toward modernizing agriculture in China, while the regional aging of the rural population structure poses new challenges to green agricultural development. Based on the spatial error model (SEM) and the perspective of human capital level, this paper uses the SBM-ML index method to construct the level of green agricultural development and empirically analyzes the impact of rural population aging on green agricultural development. The study finds that both an increase in the proportion of the rural elderly population and an increase in the old-age dependency ratio restrain green agricultural development. Additionally, the aging of the rural population has a negative impact on the level of rural human capital. Robustness analysis using replacement weight matrices confirms the reliability of the paper’s conclusions. Therefore, efforts are needed to enhance rural education levels, provide more training opportunities for rural elderly individuals, and promote the dissemination of green agricultural technologies to facilitate rural green development.
References
Liu J, Du S, Fu Z, 2021, The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Farmers’ Cleaner Production Behavior: Evidence from Five Provinces of the North China Plain. Sustainability, 13(21): 12199.
Liu J, Fang Y, Wang G, et al. The Aging of Farmers and its Challenges for Labor-intensive Agriculture in China: A Perspective on Farmland Transfer Plans for Farmers’ Retirement. Journal of Rural Studies, 2023(100): 103013.
Liao L, Long H, Gao X, et al., 2019, Effects of Land Use Transitions and Rural Aging on Agricultural Production in China’s Farming Area: A Perspective from Changing Labor Employing Quantity in the Planting Industry. Land Use Policy, 2019(88): 104152.
Shi C, Li L, Chiu YH, et al., 2022, Spatial Differentiation of Agricultural Water Resource Utilization Efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under Changing Environment. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022(346): 131200.
Du JG, Li B, Yang H, 2023, The Impact of Agricultural Human Capital on Green Agricultural Total Factor Productivity under the Aging Population. China Population Resources and Environment, 33(9): 215–228.
Bao XX, 2022, Analysis of the Impact and Strategies of the Aging of the Rural Population and the Loss of the Young Population on the Agricultural Economy. Science and Technology Information, 20(4): 254–256. https://doi.org/10.16661/j.cnki.1672-3791.2112-5042-8134
Cheng AH, Zhao F, He LH, 2017, Research on the Aging of Rural Population in Ethnic Minority Areas and its Development Trends — Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data from 2000 to 2015. Ethnic Studies, 2017(4): 39–49 +124.
Liu Y, Lu C, Chen X, 2023, Dynamic Analysis of Green Agricultural Development Efficiency in China: Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors. Journal of Arid Land, 15(2): 127–144.
Hou C, Chen H, Long R, 2022, Coupling and Coordination of China’s Economy, Ecological Environment and Health from a Green Production Perspective. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 19(5): 4087–4106.
Zhang H, Li J, Quan T, 2023, Strengthening or Weakening: The Impact of an Aging Rural Workforce on Agricultural Economic Resilience in China. Agriculture, 13(7): 1436.
Gao Y, Zhao D, Yu L, et al., 2020, Influence of a New Agricultural Technology Extension Mode on Farmers’ Technology Adoption Behavior in China. Journal of Rural Studies, 2020(76): 173–183.
Li Q, Ding CL, 2019, Environmental Regulation, Spatial Spillover and Industrial Upgrading—An Example from the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Journal of Chongqing University (Social Science Edition), 25(1): 17–28.