Keywords
Seasonal index
Probability distribution model
Prediction
Submitted : 2024-04-13
Accepted : 2024-04-28
Published : 2024-05-13
Abstract
Based on the fire accident statistics, this study uses the seasonal index method to comprehensively analyze the temporal pattern of fire occurrence in China from 2010 to 2015. The study scientifically reflects that the number of fire occurrences has an extremely close relationship with time, and summarizes the temporal pattern and characteristics of fire occurrences. This study concludes that the high incidence of large fire accidents in China occurs in the time period of 3:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. The probability distribution model of the average total number of accidents in each time period was established and the Kolmogorov test was carried out, which shows that the time characteristics of fire accidents in China can be understood with the probability distribution model as a whole. The results of the analysis of the time characteristics of the fire accidents can provide decision-making information for combating fire accidents.
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