In this study, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was used to estimate the long-term impact of the number of health medical institutions and health technicians (two important indicators in medical resources) on infant mortality in Yunnan Province. The error correction model (ECM) was used to estimate the short-term impact influence. The results show that the number of health and medical institutions has a significant positive long-term and short-term impact on infant mortality; the number of health workers has a significant negative short-term impact and a significant positive long-term impact on infant mortality. Several suggestions are also provided to optimize the allocation of medical resources and policy construction. For example, medical institutions should be built and health workers should be recruited judiciously, focusing on “quality” rather than “quantity.” In addition, this study also provides empirical evidence for future research in related fields.
Huang J, Dai S, Qiu L, 2014, Application of ARIMA model in prediction of infant mortality. Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, 15 (3): 256–259.
Li H, 2013, Research on the Development Trend of Infant Mortality Rate in China—Application of Dynamic Sequence Analysis. Chinese Population Sciences, 2013(6): 39–49.
Yue D, Chen X, Zhu Y, et al., 2022, Reductions in Under-5 Mortality and Public Health Improvements of the China Healthy Cities (Counties) Initiative: A Nationwide Quasi-Experimental Study. BMJ Global Health, 7(3): e007154.
Gu W, Wang D, Huang S, et al., 2020, The Impact of Regional Pediatric Medical Resource Distribution on Infant Mortality and Mortality of Children Under 5 Years Old. Jiangsu Health Management, 31(10): 1381–1386.
Fan Q, Zhou P, Tong S, et al., 2021, Analysis of Dynamic Response to Changes in Economic Development and Infant Mortality Rate in China from 1991 to 2018. Chinese Journal of Disease Control, 25(2): 198–203.
Jin S, Qian N, Fang B, et al., 2023, Analysis of Influencing Factors of Infant Mortality Based on Vector Error Correction Model. Modern Preventive Medicine, 50(20): 3706–3711.
Dong M, Xiao Y, Jia Z, et al., 2019, Prediction Analysis of Infant Mortality in National Surveillance Areas Based on Time Series Model. Chinese Maternal and Child Health Care, 34(14): 3156–3159.