Keywords
Pension-fiscal pressure
Delayed retirement
Active ageing
Liaoning coastal economic belt
Submitted : 2026-03-16
Accepted : 2026-03-31
Published : 2026-04-15
Abstract
Using data from China’s Seventh National Population Census and 2020 economic statistics, this study identifies the spatial configuration of older populations in Liaoning Province, assesses the match between ageing pressure and economic capacity across the coastal economic belt, and estimates fiscal resources released by delayed retirement. Older adults form a belt-like pattern with cohort heterogeneity: ages 60–64 concentrate along the coastal port-industrial corridor and development zones, whereas ages 65+ cluster in districts and industrial neighborhoods. Among six coastal prefecture-level cities, Dalian and Panjin have stronger capacity and lower pressure; Huludao, Dandong, and Jinzhou pair weaker economies with higher pressure; Yingkou is intermediate. Conservatively, pension outlays for ages 60–64 equal 5.54%, 5.53%, and 4.79% of local output in Huludao, Dandong, and Jinzhou. Delayed retirement could reduce spending by 35.663 billion yuan annually (178.315 billion over five years). Policy should prioritize employment support in high-pressure cities and redirect freed funds to industrial upgrading and public services in Dalian and Yingkou.
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