Keywords
The demand for preschool education resources
Multi-state population prediction model
Submitted : 2024-08-05
Accepted : 2024-08-20
Published : 2024-09-04
Abstract
The development of preschool education has become an important task in the development of education in China. However, under the trend of fewer children and changes in new population policies, the development trend of preschool education population and the demand for semester education resources in China are not clear, which brings many challenges to the allocation of future education resources. This study uses a Population Development Environment Analysis (PDE) model to predict the demand for educational resources among the preschool population in Beijing from 2020 to 2040. The research results show that during the prediction period, the scale of education eligible young children, the scale of preschool children in the first three years, the scale of kindergarten buildings, and the demand for full-time teachers and caregivers all show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The demand for education funds and per capita funds is gradually increasing. The future allocation of preschool education resources needs to be adjusted reasonably based on the actual needs and usage of resources. After investing heavily in the allocation of preschool education resources, attention should be paid to the relative surplus of resources caused by the subsequent decrease in resource demand.
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