An Empirical Analysis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in China’s Stock Market

Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis is one of the most important theories in finance. According to this hypothesis, in a stock market with sound laws, good functions, high transparencies, and extensive competitions, all valuable information is timely, accurately, and fully reflected in the trend of stock prices including the current and future values of enterprises. Unless there are market manipulations, it would be impossible for investors to gain more above the average profits in the market by analyzing former prices. Since the efficient market hypothesis has been introduced, it has become an interest in the empirical research of the security market. It is one of the most controversial investment theories and there are many evidences supporting and also opposing this hypothesis. Nevertheless, this hypothesis still holds an important status in the basic framework of mainstream theories in modern financial markets. By analyzing simulated investment transactions in regard to stock trading of three different enterprises, this paper verified that the efficient market hypothesis is partially valid.