Research on the Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the Development Level of Strategic Emerging Industries in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Abstract

Strategic emerging industries serve as the core engine driving high-quality development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Based on panel data of the “9+2” urban agglomeration from 2018 to 2024, this paper constructs an evaluation index system covering four dimensions: industrial scale, innovation capacity, social benefits, and ecological environment. The entropy-weight TOPSIS model, the Theil index, and spatial autocorrelation analysis are adopted to analyze its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics. The study shows that temporally, strategic emerging industries in the GBA maintain a steady upward trend, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen taking the lead and node cities demonstrating strong catch-up momentum. Spatially, obvious differentiation of “strong east, weak west” and “core-periphery” can be observed, forming a stable dual-core driving pattern. In terms of dynamic evolution, spatial polarization effects gradually weaken, inter-regional imbalance narrows, and coordinated convergence becomes increasingly prominent. Finally, countermeasures such as deepening cross-regional industrial coordination and optimizing factor allocation are proposed.