Keywords
Economic resilience
Mediating effects
Heterogeneity analysis
Published : 2026-07-29
Abstract
As global climate change intensifies, extreme weather events occur with increasing frequency, posing severe challenges to the stability and sustainable development of urban economic systems. This paper employs Chinese city panel data from 2011 to 2020 as its research sample to systematically assess the impact of extreme climate risks on urban economic resilience. First, an urban economic resilience index was constructed using the entropy method, alongside a climate risk index incorporating indicators such as extreme heat, extreme cold, extreme drought, and extreme precipitation. Second, empirical analysis employing the two-way fixed effects model examined the impact of climate risk on economic resilience, with mediating effects and heterogeneity analysis revealing the underlying mechanisms. Findings indicate: (1) extreme climate risks significantly undermine urban economic resilience, with high temperatures exerting the most pronounced negative effect; (2) agricultural dependency partially mediates the relationship between climate risks and economic resilience, indicating that climate risks further diminish the recovery capacity of economic systems by impacting agricultural output; (3) the impact of climate risks on economic resilience exhibits regional heterogeneity, with high-risk areas experiencing stronger shocks while low-risk areas demonstrate relative robustness. Robustness tests further validate the reliability of these conclusions. Based on this, the following policy recommendations are proposed: strengthen urban climate adaptation and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity building; promote industrial structure optimization and non-agricultural industrial development; enhance agricultural climate adaptability; and implement differentiated resilience enhancement strategies according to regional risk levels. This study not only enriches the literature on climate risk and economic resilience but also provides empirical support and policy insights for urban sustainable development in the context of climate change.
References
Boehm CE, Flaaen A, Pandalai-Nayar N, 2019, Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake. Review of Economics and Statistics, 101(1): 60–75.
Carvalho VM, Nirei M, Saito YU, et al., 2021, Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136(2): 1255–1321.
Inoue H, Todo Y, 2019, Firm-Level Propagation of Shocks Through Supply-Chain Networks. Nature Sustainability, 2(9): 841–847.
Zhang L, Yao L, 2023, Research on the Impact of Digital Technology Innovation on Urban Economic Resilience—Empirical Evidence from 278 Prefecture-Level and Above Cities in China. Journal of Management Studies, 36(05): 38–59.
Wang J, Qiao H, 2022, Human Capital Level, Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading, and Urban Economic Resilience: An Analysis Based on the PVAR Model of Chinese Cities. Journal of Technical Economics Management, (10): 80–86.
Li L, Wu S, Chen Z, 2023, Extreme Climate Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations. Journal of Financial Research, (9): 58–75.
Zhu J, Sun H, 2020, Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban Resilience in China’s Three Major Urban Agglomerations. Soft Science, 34(2): 72–79.