Keywords
Risk assessment
Cumulative prospect theory
Submitted : 2024-07-26
Accepted : 2024-08-10
Published : 2024-08-25
Abstract
Based on the analysis of the evaluation problems associated with the risk control scheme for major engineering projects, the evaluation method of the risk control scheme considering the irrational behavior of evaluation members in fuzzy random environment is proposed. Firstly, a maximum entropy model corresponding to any evaluation member is established by using triangular fuzzy random variables and grey correlation coefficient in order to obtain the weight of each risk factor of the member. Secondly, a nonlinear programming model is established according to the principle of minimizing deviation to estimate the weight of different evaluation members on the evaluation of alternative risk control schemes. Lastly, the cumulative entropy model is used to calculate the weight of risk control schemes. Cumulative prospect theory obtains the comprehensive prospect utility value of each alternative to determine the optimal alternative.
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